Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

FSV Mainz 05–Eintracht Frankfurt

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'FSV Mainz 05P. Nebel (assist: S. Becker)
20'Eintracht FrankfurtN. Brown (assist: J. Bahoya)
89'FSV Mainz 05P. Nebel

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Eintracht Frankfurt
8	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
30%	Possession	70%
235	Passes	580
173	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.62 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 8 · Eintracht Frankfurt 12; on target 5 and 4.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.65

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.25 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,158 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win44.0%

Draw26.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time28.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level71.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1158 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 9Actual: 12
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 5
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.62

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.46

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.1%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.