Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

1. FC Heidenheim–Bayer Leverkusen

3–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Bayer LeverkusenMalik Tillman (assist: Aleix García)
35'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
56'1. FC HeidenheimHennes Behrens (assist: M. Busch)
72'1. FC HeidenheimM. Pieringer (penalty)
79'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
85'1. FC Heidenheim

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Bayer Leverkusen
9	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
318	Passes	533
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.07 · Bayer Leverkusen 2.06. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 9 · Bayer Leverkusen 14; on target 5 and 5.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2.25 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (X2 — draw or Bayer Leverkusen win).
These values were computed from 1,153 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win16.8%

Draw20.7%

Bayer Leverkusen to win62.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time11.2%

Level at half-time33.6%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time55.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level44.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.4%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead88.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1153 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 11
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 2
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.07

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.06

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%1–19.6%0–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.