Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

VfL Wolfsburg–Werder Bremen

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'Werder BremenJ. Njinmah
90+2'VfL WolfsburgM. Jenz · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Werder Bremen
11	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
516	Passes	404
428	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.55 · Werder Bremen 1.50. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 11 · Werder Bremen 8; on target 4 and 3.
VfL Wolfsburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.62

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.43 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,153 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win40.3%

Draw26.2%

Werder Bremen to win33.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time40.2%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1153 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 16
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 8
Werder Bremen: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.55

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.50

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.