Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

Bayer Leverkusen–Bayern München

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Bayer LeverkusenAleix García (assist: Patrik Schick)
42'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson · red card
69'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: M. Olise)
84'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Bayern München
21	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
497	Passes	636
428	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 1.34 · Bayern München 2.02. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 21 · Bayern München 11; on target 7 and 5.
Bayern München kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

4.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Bayer Leverkusen, 2.42 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win18.2%

Draw19.9%

Bayern München to win61.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time34.4%

Bayern München lead at half-time46.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level54.0%

12 — not level at half-time65.6%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 12
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 4
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.34

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.02

Attack: Bayern München score 87% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.02 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–210.1%1–18.3%1–38.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.