Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

1899 Hoffenheim–VfL Wolfsburg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'VfL WolfsburgKonstantinos Koulierakis (assist: C. Eriksen)
83'1899 HoffenheimG. Prömel (assist: B. Touré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		VfL Wolfsburg
21	Shots	4
6	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
16	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
548	Passes	267
447	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.22 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 21 · VfL Wolfsburg 4; on target 6 and 2.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.60

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.7%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.43 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.07 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win67.7%

Draw18.7%

VfL Wolfsburg to win13.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time52.2%

Level at half-time33.8%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time66.2%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead47.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 10Actual: 10
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 6Actual: 16
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score2.22

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.20

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%2–09.0%1–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.