Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

Borussia Dortmund–FC Augsburg

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Borussia DortmundK. Adeyemi
59'Borussia DortmundL. Reggiani (assist: J. Ryerson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		FC Augsburg
16	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
12	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
576	Passes	385
500	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 2.27 · FC Augsburg 0.92. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 16 · FC Augsburg 7; on target 5 and 3.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Bastian Dankert, Germany→

3.30

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.06 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,144 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win61.9%

Draw21.6%

FC Augsburg to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time61.9%

Level at half-time31.6%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time6.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level93.4%

12 — not level at half-time68.4%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead38.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1144 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 10Actual: 7
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 5Actual: 12
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.27

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score0.92

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.