Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Union Berlin–Werder Bremen

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Union BerlinD. Kohn (penalty)
19'Union BerlinA. Schäfer · red card
31'Werder BremenO. Deman (assist: J. Stage)
36'Werder BremenJ. Stage (assist: C. Puertas)
66'Werder BremenM. Grüll (assist: Romano Schmid)
90'Werder Bremen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		Werder Bremen
9	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
26%	Possession	74%
240	Passes	716
151	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.53 · Werder Bremen 1.25. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Union Berlin 9 · Werder Bremen 15; on target 2 and 5.
Werder Bremen kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

4.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Union Berlin to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Union Berlin, 1.13 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,142 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win39.9%

Draw29.3%

Werder Bremen to win30.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Union Berlin lead at half-time33.4%

Level at half-time43.3%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time23.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level76.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead66.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1142 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 5
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 5Actual: 1
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.53

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.25

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.5%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.