Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

FC St. Pauli–Eintracht Frankfurt

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Eintracht Frankfurt
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
28%	Possession	72%
243	Passes	679
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.24 · Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC St. Pauli 11 · Eintracht Frankfurt 8; on target 2 and 2.
Eintracht Frankfurt kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Felix Zwayer, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for FC St. Pauli, 1.25 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,141 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win37.1%

Draw28.7%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time33.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level66.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1141 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 8Actual: 13
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 6
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.24

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.57

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.