Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

1. FC Köln–Borussia Dortmund

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: M. Beier)
45+2'1. FC KölnJahmai Simpson-Pusey · red card
60'Borussia DortmundM. Beier (assist: J. Brandt)
88'1. FC KölnJakub Kamiński

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Borussia Dortmund
14	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
39%	Possession	61%
368	Passes	606
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.24 · Borussia Dortmund 1.92. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Köln 14 · Borussia Dortmund 13; on target 4 and 5.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for 1. FC Köln, 1.93 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (X2 — draw or Borussia Dortmund win).
These values were computed from 1,140 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win22.6%

Draw23.8%

Borussia Dortmund to win53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Köln lead at half-time13.4%

Level at half-time37.4%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time49.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level50.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead86.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1140 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 9
Borussia Dortmund: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 4Actual: 9
Borussia Dortmund: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.24

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.92

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–210.7%0–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.