Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

1. FC Heidenheim–1899 Hoffenheim

2–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'1899 HoffenheimA. Prass (assist: F. Asllani)
45'1899 HoffenheimA. Prass (assist: A. Kramarić)
49'1899 HoffenheimF. Asllani
63'1. FC HeidenheimL. Kerber (assist: Hennes Behrens)
78'1899 HoffenheimT. Lemperle (assist: B. Touré)
84'1. FC HeidenheimL. Kerber

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		1899 Hoffenheim
8	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
352	Passes	427
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 · 1899 Hoffenheim 1.88. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 8 · 1899 Hoffenheim 16; on target 2 and 7.

Referee

Robert Hartmann, Germany→

4.27

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2.25 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or 1899 Hoffenheim win).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win16.3%

Draw20.6%

1899 Hoffenheim to win63.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time15.3%

Level at half-time36.1%

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time48.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level51.4%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or 1899 Hoffenheim ahead84.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 9Actual: 7
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 5Actual: 4
1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.41

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.88

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–19.6%0–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.