Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

RB Leipzig–FC Augsburg

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'FC AugsburgR. Fellhauer (assist: F. Rieder)
76'RB LeipzigY. Diomande (assist: C. Harder)
90'RB LeipzigArthur Chaves (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		FC Augsburg
17	Shots	16
8	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	8
1	Offsides	4
61%	Possession	39%
552	Passes	341
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.17 · FC Augsburg 1.01. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots RB Leipzig 17 · FC Augsburg 16; on target 8 and 5.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Martin Petersen, Germany→

4.56

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.5%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for RB Leipzig, 0.99 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 88.8% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win71.5%

Draw17.2%

FC Augsburg to win11.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

RB Leipzig lead at half-time59.4%

Level at half-time32.8%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time7.8%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level92.2%

12 — not level at half-time67.2%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead40.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 10Actual: 8
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 6
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.17

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.01

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%2–09.6%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.