Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

FSV Mainz 05–VfB Stuttgart

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'FSV Mainz 05Lee Jae-Sung (assist: D. da Costa)
76'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: D. Undav)
77'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: T. Tomas)
90'FSV Mainz 05D. da Costa

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		VfB Stuttgart
18	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
318	Passes	537
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.52 · VfB Stuttgart 1.74. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 18 · VfB Stuttgart 11; on target 6 and 4.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany→

4.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “FSV Mainz 05 to win” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.82 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win26.6%

Draw24.7%

VfB Stuttgart to win48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time39.3%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time35.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level64.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 12Actual: 7
VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 4Actual: 5
VfB Stuttgart: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.52

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.74

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–210.4%2–17.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.