Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

VfL Wolfsburg–Hamburger SV

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'VfL WolfsburgM. Müller · red card
22'VfL WolfsburgC. Eriksen (penalty)
33'Hamburger SVL. Vušković (penalty)
58'Hamburger SVJean-Luc Dompé (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Hamburger SV
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
391	Passes	374
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.62 · Hamburger SV 1.42. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 14 · Hamburger SV 10; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

4.44

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “Hamburger SV to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.38 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win36.9%

Draw27.5%

Hamburger SV to win35.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time40.9%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 11Actual: 18
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 7
Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.62

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.42

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.2%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.