Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

SC Freiburg–Bayer Leverkusen

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'SC FreiburgV. Grifo (assist: C. Günter)
37'Bayer LeverkusenChristian Kofane (assist: Martin Terrier)
43'SC FreiburgY. Suzuki (assist: P. Treu)
45'Bayer LeverkusenÁlex Grimaldo
52'Bayer LeverkusenMartin Terrier (assist: Christian Kofane)
86'SC FreiburgM. Ginter

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Freiburg		Bayer Leverkusen
21	Shots	17
9	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
465	Passes	532
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Freiburg 1.30 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.55. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots SC Freiburg 21 · Bayer Leverkusen 17; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.42

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.8%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “SC Freiburg to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for SC Freiburg, 1.51 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Freiburg to win32.2%

Draw27.0%

Bayer Leverkusen to win40.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

SC Freiburg lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time39.7%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Freiburg ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 7
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

SC Freiburg: at least 4Actual: 5
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.30

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.55

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.7%2–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.