Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Bayern München–Borussia Mönchengladbach

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 6 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: L. Goretzka)
45'Bayern MünchenK. Laimer (assist: L. Díaz)
55'Borussia MönchengladbachR. Reitz · red card
57'Bayern MünchenJ. Musiala (penalty)
79'Bayern MünchenN. Jackson (assist: L. Karl)
89'Borussia Mönchengladbach

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Borussia Mönchengladbach
18	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	1
2	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
769	Passes	327
707	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 3.15 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.64. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Bayern München 18 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 10; on target 9 and 5.
Bayern München kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

4.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.90 for Bayern München, 0.91 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 92.4% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win78.9%

Draw13.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win7.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bayern München lead at half-time76.0%

Level at half-time22.1%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time1.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level98.1%

12 — not level at half-time77.9%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead24.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1134 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 7
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Bayern München: at least 6Actual: 7
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score3.15

Attack: Bayern München score 88% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score0.64

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–09.3%3–09.2%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.