Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

Hamburger SV–Bayer Leverkusen

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 4 March 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'Bayer LeverkusenChristian Kofane (assist: I. Maza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Bayer Leverkusen
10	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
336	Passes	569
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 1.18 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.71. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hamburger SV 10 · Bayer Leverkusen 14; on target 3 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Sören Storks, Germany→

5.89

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “Hamburger SV to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Hamburger SV, 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,133 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win26.2%

Draw25.6%

Bayer Leverkusen to win48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hamburger SV lead at half-time21.5%

Level at half-time37.9%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time40.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level59.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead78.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1133 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 12
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 2
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.18

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.71

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.5%0–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.