Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

VfB Stuttgart–VfL Wolfsburg

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: E. Demirović)
30'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling (assist: C. Fuhrich)
42'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling
90'VfB StuttgartN. Nartey (assist: T. Tomas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		VfL Wolfsburg
24	Shots	10
11	Shots on target	3
19	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
632	Passes	378
548	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 2.31 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.13. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 24 · VfL Wolfsburg 10; on target 11 and 3.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.4%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.12 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,130 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win69.4%

Draw17.6%

VfL Wolfsburg to win13.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time44.6%

Level at half-time37.1%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead55.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1130 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 5
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 6Actual: 7
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.31

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.13

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.1%3–18.8%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.