Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Borussia Dortmund–Bayern München

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Borussia DortmundN. Schlotterbeck (assist: D. Svensson)
54'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: S. Gnabry)
70'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (penalty)
83'Borussia DortmundD. Svensson (assist: M. Sabitzer)
87'Bayern MünchenJ. Kimmich

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		Bayern München
10	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
288	Passes	590
206	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 1.44 · Bayern München 2.01. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 10 · Bayern München 14; on target 2 and 6.
Bayern München kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Sven Jablonski, Germany→

3.38

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “Borussia Dortmund to win” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.25 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,129 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win21.6%

Draw21.4%

Bayern München to win57.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time38.6%

Bayern München lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.4%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1129 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 15
Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Borussia Dortmund: at least 4Actual: 5
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.44

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.01

Attack: Bayern München score 87% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.2%1–19.1%1–37.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.