Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

1899 Hoffenheim–FC St. Pauli

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FC St. PauliMathias Pereira Lage (assist: Manolis Saliakas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		FC St. Pauli
20	Shots	11
11	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	11
10	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
567	Passes	305
455	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.91 · FC St. Pauli 1.03. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 20 · FC St. Pauli 11; on target 11 and 3.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Deniz Aytekin, Germany→

4.38

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.9%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0.83 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,125 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win62.9%

Draw22.8%

FC St. Pauli to win14.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time48.9%

Level at half-time37.3%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time13.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level86.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead51.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1125 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 13
FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 5Actual: 10
FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.91

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.03

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%1–011.6%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.