Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

Borussia Mönchengladbach–Union Berlin

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Borussia MönchengladbachK. Diks (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		Union Berlin
21	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
478	Passes	337
401	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.49 · Union Berlin 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 21 · Union Berlin 6; on target 7 and 2.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany→

3.60

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.17 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,125 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win40.3%

Draw28.7%

Union Berlin to win31.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

Union Berlin lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1125 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 5
Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 6
Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.49

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.39

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.9%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.