Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

FC Augsburg–1. FC Köln

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'FC AugsburgRodrigo Ribeiro (assist: Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks)
90'FC AugsburgA. Claude-Maurice (assist: M. Gregoritsch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		1. FC Köln
14	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	9
3	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
385	Passes	443
303	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.51 · 1. FC Köln 1.46. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Augsburg 14 · 1. FC Köln 10; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

4.80

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “1. FC Köln to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for FC Augsburg, 1.23 for 1. FC Köln.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,124 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win44.0%

Draw27.0%

1. FC Köln to win29.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	4

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Augsburg lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

1. FC Köln lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or 1. FC Köln ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1124 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 15
1. FC Köln: at least 9Actual: 4

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Köln: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.51

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.46

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.1%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.