Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

1. FC Heidenheim–VfB Stuttgart

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'VfB StuttgartC. Fuhrich
20'1. FC HeidenheimE. Dinkçi
34'1. FC HeidenheimA. Ibrahimović (penalty)
45'VfB StuttgartM. Mittelstädt (penalty)
82'1. FC HeidenheimS. Conteh
88'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: N. Nartey)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		VfB Stuttgart
10	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
308	Passes	604
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.25 · VfB Stuttgart 2.02. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 10 · VfB Stuttgart 12; on target 6 and 8.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.47

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2.05 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (X2 — draw or VfB Stuttgart win).
These values were computed from 1,123 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win20.4%

Draw22.7%

VfB Stuttgart to win57.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time14.7%

Level at half-time37.9%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time47.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level52.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead85.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1123 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 13
VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 3
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.25

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.02

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.7%0–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.