Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

FC St. Pauli–Werder Bremen

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'FC St. PauliH. Wahl (assist: D. Sinani)
62'Werder BremenJ. Milosevic
70'FC St. PauliJ. Fujita (assist: Manolis Saliakas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Werder Bremen
4	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
408	Passes	562
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.33 · Werder Bremen 1.30. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 4 · Werder Bremen 13; on target 4 and 4.
Werder Bremen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Sören Storks, Germany→

5.63

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “FC St. Pauli to win”. Second comes “Werder Bremen to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for FC St. Pauli, 1.23 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,122 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win36.0%

Draw29.2%

Werder Bremen to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time43.9%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1122 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 6
Werder Bremen: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 5Actual: 1
Werder Bremen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.33

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.30

Attack: Werder Bremen score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–09.5%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.