Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

Union Berlin–Bayer Leverkusen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Union BerlinR. Khedira (assist: A. Kemlein)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		Bayer Leverkusen
8	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
303	Passes	549
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.24 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.63. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Union Berlin 8 · Bayer Leverkusen 16; on target 4 and 1.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

4.88

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Union Berlin, 1.40 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win30.3%

Draw28.4%

Bayer Leverkusen to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Union Berlin lead at half-time15.6%

Level at half-time35.4%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time48.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level51.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead84.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 15
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 4
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.24

Attack: Union Berlin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.63

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–19.8%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.