Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

VfL Wolfsburg–FC Augsburg

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'VfL WolfsburgY. Gerhardt (assist: C. Eriksen)
59'FC AugsburgRodrigo Ribeiro (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
71'VfL WolfsburgK. Shiogai (assist: M. Amoura)
87'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch (penalty)
90'FC AugsburgE. Rexhbecaj (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		FC Augsburg
10	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
455	Passes	448
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 · FC Augsburg 1.26. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 10 · FC Augsburg 15; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

Daniel Schlager, Germany→

4.22

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “VfL Wolfsburg to win”. Second comes “FC Augsburg to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for VfL Wolfsburg, 1.29 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win43.6%

Draw26.6%

FC Augsburg to win29.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time41.4%

Level at half-time38.9%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead58.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 11Actual: 10
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 4
FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.72

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.26

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.0%1–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.