Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

Bayern München–Eintracht Frankfurt

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Bayern MünchenA. Pavlović
20'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: J. Stanišić)
68'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: J. Kimmich)
77'Eintracht FrankfurtJ. Burkardt (penalty)
86'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Kalimuendo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Eintracht Frankfurt
24	Shots	9
11	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
510	Passes	499
465	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 3.07 · Eintracht Frankfurt 0.76. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Bayern München 24 · Eintracht Frankfurt 9; on target 11 and 3.

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.64 for Bayern München, 0.86 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,116 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win87.9%

Draw8.2%

Eintracht Frankfurt to win3.9%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Bayern München lead at half-time62.4%

Level at half-time28.8%

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time71.2%

X2 — level or Eintracht Frankfurt ahead37.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1116 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 8Actual: 9
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Bayern München: at least 5Actual: 8
Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score3.07

Attack: Bayern München score 88% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score0.76

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.1%3–18.5%4–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.