Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

FSV Mainz 05–Hamburger SV

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (assist: D. da Costa)
64'Hamburger SVFábio Vieira

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Hamburger SV
17	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
315	Passes	406
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.68 · Hamburger SV 1.36. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 17 · Hamburger SV 14; on target 3 and 5.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Hamburger SV to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.22 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,115 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win46.6%

Draw26.3%

Hamburger SV to win27.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time33.3%

Level at half-time41.2%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead66.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1115 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 11Actual: 16
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 7
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.68

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.36

Attack: Hamburger SV score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.3%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.