Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

RB Leipzig–VfL Wolfsburg

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'VfL WolfsburgM. Amoura (assist: A. Daghim)
70'RB LeipzigY. Diomande (assist: B. Gruda)
78'VfL WolfsburgM. Svanberg (assist: J. Belocian)
89'RB LeipzigB. Gruda

Match statistics

Match statistics
RB Leipzig		VfL Wolfsburg
20	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
692	Passes	328
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RB Leipzig 2.19 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.17. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots RB Leipzig 20 · VfL Wolfsburg 10; on target 10 and 3.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for RB Leipzig, 1.20 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (1X — RB Leipzig win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RB Leipzig to win63.4%

Draw20.0%

VfL Wolfsburg to win16.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RB Leipzig lead at half-time51.2%

Level at half-time35.4%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — RB Leipzig ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead48.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 6
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

RB Leipzig: at least 6Actual: 6
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.19

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.17

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%1–18.9%3–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.