Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

Eintracht Frankfurt–Borussia Mönchengladbach

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Eintracht FrankfurtN. Brown (assist: J. Bahoya)
34'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Amaimouni (assist: J. Bahoya)
75'Eintracht FrankfurtA. Knauff

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Borussia Mönchengladbach
12	Shots	20
9	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
2	Corners	8
4	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
379	Passes	463
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.91 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.32. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 12 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 20; on target 9 and 3.
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Martin Petersen, Germany→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.27 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win45.2%

Draw26.3%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win28.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time35.9%

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 11
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 5Actual: 2
Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.91

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.32

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.2%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.