Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 22

1899 Hoffenheim–SC Freiburg

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'1899 HoffenheimF. Asllani (assist: V. Coufal)
51'1899 HoffenheimO. Kabak (assist: V. Coufal)
90'1899 HoffenheimV. Gendrey (assist: A. Prass)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		SC Freiburg
25	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
523	Passes	331
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72 · SC Freiburg 1.44. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 25 · SC Freiburg 13; on target 7 and 3.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.08 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,107 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win56.0%

Draw24.0%

SC Freiburg to win20.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time41.5%

Level at half-time37.6%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead58.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1107 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 12Actual: 8
SC Freiburg: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 6
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.72

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.44

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.9%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.