Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

1. FC Köln–RB Leipzig

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'RB LeipzigC. Baumgartner (assist: D. Raum)
51'1. FC KölnJ. Thielmann (assist: Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson)
56'RB LeipzigC. Baumgartner (assist: X. Schlager)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		RB Leipzig
10	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
5	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
341	Passes	431
249	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.51 · RB Leipzig 1.74. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Köln 10 · RB Leipzig 19; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

Frank Willenborg, Germany→

3.63

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “1. FC Köln to win” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for 1. FC Köln, 1.90 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,104 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win28.2%

Draw24.1%

RB Leipzig to win47.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Köln lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time38.5%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1104 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 7
RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 4Actual: 4
RB Leipzig: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.51

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.74

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–210.1%2–17.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.