Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

FC St. Pauli–VfB Stuttgart

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'FC St. PauliManolis Saliakas (assist: A. Pyrka)
55'FC St. PauliD. Sinani (penalty)
90'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling (assist: J. Arevalo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		VfB Stuttgart
15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
307	Passes	661
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.09 · VfB Stuttgart 1.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 15 · VfB Stuttgart 7; on target 7 and 3.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Benjamin Brand, Germany→

3.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for FC St. Pauli, 1.77 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or VfB Stuttgart win).
These values were computed from 1,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win19.0%

Draw24.9%

VfB Stuttgart to win56.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time41.3%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 9
VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 5
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.09

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.77

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%1–210.8%0–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.