Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

1. FC Heidenheim–Hamburger SV

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Hamburger SVR. Königsdörffer (assist: P. Otele)
78'Hamburger SVR. Philippe (assist: Fábio Vieira)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Hamburger SV
20	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
378	Passes	413
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 · Hamburger SV 1.53. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 20 · Hamburger SV 14; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

3.10

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “1. FC Heidenheim to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.42 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win32.8%

Draw27.8%

Hamburger SV to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 6
Hamburger SV: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 5Actual: 10
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.41

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.53

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.5%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.