Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

FSV Mainz 05–FC Augsburg

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (penalty)
80'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		FC Augsburg
10	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
328	Passes	526
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.77 · FC Augsburg 1.23. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 10 · FC Augsburg 14; on target 6 and 6.
FC Augsburg kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Patrick Ittrich, Germany→

2.83

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.12 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — FSV Mainz 05 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win49.0%

Draw26.4%

FC Augsburg to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time39.7%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time21.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level78.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 11Actual: 12
FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 5Actual: 6
FC Augsburg: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.77

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.23

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.