Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

VfL Wolfsburg–Borussia Dortmund

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Borussia DortmundJ. Brandt (assist: J. Ryerson)
52'VfL WolfsburgKonstantinos Koulierakis (assist: M. Arnold)
87'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: Fábio Silva)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Wolfsburg		Borussia Dortmund
12	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
312	Passes	580
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Wolfsburg 1.19 · Borussia Dortmund 2.08. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Wolfsburg 12 · Borussia Dortmund 21; on target 2 and 4.
Borussia Dortmund kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Timo Gerach, Germany→

5.33

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for VfL Wolfsburg, 2.05 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Borussia Dortmund win).
These values were computed from 1,098 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Wolfsburg to win20.3%

Draw22.6%

Borussia Dortmund to win57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time15.2%

Level at half-time36.7%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time48.2%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Wolfsburg ahead or level51.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead84.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1098 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 13
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 4
Borussia Dortmund: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.19

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score2.08

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–110.7%0–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.