Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

VfB Stuttgart–SC Freiburg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'VfB StuttgartE. Demirović (assist: D. Undav)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		SC Freiburg
18	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
512	Passes	229
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.91 · SC Freiburg 1.33. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 18 · SC Freiburg 11; on target 7 and 2.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Florian Badstubner, Germany→

2.56

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.4%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.08 for SC Freiburg.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,095 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win58.4%

Draw23.0%

SC Freiburg to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time38.5%

SC Freiburg lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or SC Freiburg ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1095 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 10Actual: 14
SC Freiburg: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 6
SC Freiburg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.91

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: SC Freiburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Freiburg score1.33

Attack: SC Freiburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–111.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.