Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

Hamburger SV–Bayern München

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Hamburger SVFábio Vieira (penalty)
42'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: J. Kimmich)
46'Bayern MünchenL. Díaz (assist: M. Olise)
53'Hamburger SVL. Vušković (assist: W. Mikelbrencis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Bayern München
14	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	9
3	Offsides	1
28%	Possession	72%
262	Passes	689
206	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 0.79 · Bayern München 2.54. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Hamburger SV 14 · Bayern München 13; on target 4 and 7.
Bayern München kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Harm Osmers, Germany→

4.53

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Hamburger SV, 2.64 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 90.7% (X2 — draw or Bayern München win).
These values were computed from 1,094 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win9.3%

Draw15.8%

Bayern München to win74.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hamburger SV lead at half-time8.5%

Level at half-time33.3%

Bayern München lead at half-time58.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level41.7%

12 — not level at half-time66.7%

X2 — level or Bayern München ahead91.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1094 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 9Actual: 12
Bayern München: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 3
Bayern München: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score0.79

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayern München score2.54

Attack: Bayern München score 84% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.1%1–210.0%0–39.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.