Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

FC Augsburg–FC St. Pauli

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'FC St. PauliD. Sinani (penalty)
41'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)
59'FC AugsburgM. Gregoritsch (assist: A. Claude-Maurice)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Augsburg		FC St. Pauli
12	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
417	Passes	526
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Augsburg 1.41 · FC St. Pauli 1.13. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Augsburg 12 · FC St. Pauli 17; on target 6 and 5.
FC St. Pauli kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Sascha Stegemann, Germany→

3.43

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “FC Augsburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for FC Augsburg, 0.94 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — FC Augsburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Augsburg to win45.5%

Draw29.6%

FC St. Pauli to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Augsburg lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time43.7%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Augsburg ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Augsburg: at least 10Actual: 15
FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FC Augsburg: at least 4Actual: 5
FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Augsburg score1.41

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.13

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.0%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.