Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

Eintracht Frankfurt–Bayer Leverkusen

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Bayer LeverkusenArthur (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
33'Bayer LeverkusenMalik Tillman (assist: Christian Kofane)
50'Eintracht FrankfurtR. Koch
70'Eintracht FrankfurtE. Skhiri · red card
90'Bayer LeverkusenAleix García (assist: E. Poku)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Bayer Leverkusen
11	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
510	Passes	740
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.79. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 11 · Bayer Leverkusen 11; on target 4 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.7%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Frankfurt to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.70 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win27.6%

Draw25.7%

Bayer Leverkusen to win46.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Eintracht Frankfurt lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time35.6%

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Frankfurt ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time64.4%

X2 — level or Bayer Leverkusen ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 10Actual: 11
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 8Actual: 10

Corners

Eintracht Frankfurt: at least 4Actual: 8
Bayer Leverkusen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.47

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.79

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.3%0–17.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.