Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

1899 Hoffenheim–Union Berlin

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (penalty)
45'1899 HoffenheimA. Kramarić (assist: B. Touré)
47'1899 HoffenheimDiogo Leite (own goal)
68'Union BerlinR. Khedira

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		Union Berlin
9	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	10
3	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
449	Passes	286
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.73 · Union Berlin 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 9 · Union Berlin 16; on target 4 and 3.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Robin Braun, Germany→

5.14

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “1899 Hoffenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.06 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — 1899 Hoffenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,089 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win52.7%

Draw25.6%

Union Berlin to win21.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

1899 Hoffenheim lead at half-time48.8%

Level at half-time36.5%

Union Berlin lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1899 Hoffenheim ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.5%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead51.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1089 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 11Actual: 11
Union Berlin: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

1899 Hoffenheim: at least 4Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.73

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.24

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.7%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.