Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 20

1. FC Köln–VfL Wolfsburg

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 30 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'1. FC KölnL. Maina (assist: T. Krauß)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		VfL Wolfsburg
15	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
320	Passes	466
230	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.87 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.42. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1. FC Köln 15 · VfL Wolfsburg 14; on target 3 and 3.
VfL Wolfsburg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Martin Petersen, Germany→

4.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “VfL Wolfsburg to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for 1. FC Köln, 1.29 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,088 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win46.9%

Draw25.6%

VfL Wolfsburg to win27.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time39.5%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time34.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level65.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1088 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 8Actual: 8
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 6Actual: 3
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.87

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.42

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.4%1–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.