Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

FC St. Pauli–RB Leipzig

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 27 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'RB LeipzigY. Diomande
90'FC St. PauliM. Kaars (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		RB Leipzig
7	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
5	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
513	Passes	603
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.10 · RB Leipzig 1.78. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC St. Pauli 7 · RB Leipzig 12; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for FC St. Pauli, 1.59 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or RB Leipzig win).
These values were computed from 1,086 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win19.0%

Draw26.7%

RB Leipzig to win54.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time16.2%

Level at half-time40.3%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time43.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level56.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead83.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1086 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 9Actual: 6
RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 5Actual: 4
RB Leipzig: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.10

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.78

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%0–113.0%0–211.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.