Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

Borussia Mönchengladbach–VfB Stuttgart

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'VfB StuttgartJ. Leweling
67'VfB StuttgartJ. Scally (own goal)
74'VfB StuttgartD. Undav (assist: A. Stiller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach		VfB Stuttgart
12	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
431	Passes	555
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.46 · VfB Stuttgart 1.88. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Borussia Mönchengladbach 12 · VfB Stuttgart 17; on target 3 and 8.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Sören Storks, Germany→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “Borussia Mönchengladbach to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,084 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win32.8%

Draw25.7%

VfB Stuttgart to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Borussia Mönchengladbach lead at half-time22.0%

Level at half-time37.6%

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time40.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead or level59.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or VfB Stuttgart ahead78.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1084 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 11Actual: 11
VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 7

Corners

Borussia Mönchengladbach: at least 4Actual: 1
VfB Stuttgart: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Mönchengladbach score1.46

Attack: Borussia Mönchengladbach score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.88

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.