Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

Union Berlin–Borussia Dortmund

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Borussia DortmundE. Can (penalty)
53'Borussia DortmundN. Schlotterbeck (assist: J. Ryerson)
84'Borussia DortmundM. Beier (assist: J. Bellingham)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union Berlin		Borussia Dortmund
10	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
378	Passes	299
268	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union Berlin 1.19 · Borussia Dortmund 1.70. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Union Berlin 10 · Borussia Dortmund 15; on target 3 and 5.
Union Berlin kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Robert Hartmann, Germany→

4.56

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “Union Berlin to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Union Berlin, 1.38 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,083 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union Berlin to win29.1%

Draw28.7%

Borussia Dortmund to win42.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Union Berlin lead at half-time14.0%

Level at half-time38.2%

Borussia Dortmund lead at half-time47.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Union Berlin ahead or level52.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Borussia Dortmund ahead86.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1083 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union Berlin: at least 11Actual: 10
Borussia Dortmund: at least 9Actual: 16

Corners

Union Berlin: at least 4Actual: 7
Borussia Dortmund: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union Berlin score1.19

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.70

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–110.5%1–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.