Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

1. FC Heidenheim–RB Leipzig

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'RB LeipzigR. Baku (assist: Y. Diomande)
68'RB LeipzigA. Nusa (assist: N. Seiwald)
70'RB LeipzigD. Raum (assist: Y. Diomande)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		RB Leipzig
7	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	3
26%	Possession	74%
237	Passes	702
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 · RB Leipzig 2.00. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 7 · RB Leipzig 11; on target 2 and 8.
RB Leipzig kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Tobias Stieler, Germany→

3.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “RB Leipzig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2.15 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (X2 — draw or RB Leipzig win).
These values were computed from 1,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win19.5%

Draw21.8%

RB Leipzig to win58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time8.7%

Level at half-time32.9%

RB Leipzig lead at half-time58.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level41.6%

12 — not level at half-time67.1%

X2 — level or RB Leipzig ahead91.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 10
RB Leipzig: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 5
RB Leipzig: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.30

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score2.00

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%1–110.1%0–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.