Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

Bayer Leverkusen–Werder Bremen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Bayer LeverkusenLucas Vázquez (assist: I. Maza)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Werder Bremen
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
551	Passes	555
473	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.20 · Werder Bremen 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 13 · Werder Bremen 17; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

3.50

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.0%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.11 for Werder Bremen.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win62.0%

Draw21.1%

Werder Bremen to win16.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bayer Leverkusen lead at half-time51.6%

Level at half-time34.0%

Werder Bremen lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayer Leverkusen ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.0%

X2 — level or Werder Bremen ahead48.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 9Actual: 6
Werder Bremen: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Bayer Leverkusen: at least 6Actual: 5
Werder Bremen: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.20

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Werder Bremen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Werder Bremen score1.03

Attack: Werder Bremen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.0%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.