Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

FSV Mainz 05–VfL Wolfsburg

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mewa Arena, Mainz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'VfL WolfsburgM. Amoura (assist: S. Kumbedi)
68'FSV Mainz 05P. Tietz (assist: N. Amiri)
73'FSV Mainz 05S. Bell (assist: B. Hollerbach)
83'FSV Mainz 05N. Amiri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		VfL Wolfsburg
20	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
15	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
425	Passes	319
333	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.71 · VfL Wolfsburg 1.47. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 20 · VfL Wolfsburg 7; on target 9 and 2.
FSV Mainz 05 kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Daniel Siebert, Germany→

2.89

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “VfL Wolfsburg to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.23 for VfL Wolfsburg.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win41.5%

Draw27.8%

VfL Wolfsburg to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FSV Mainz 05 lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time39.3%

VfL Wolfsburg lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FSV Mainz 05 ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or VfL Wolfsburg ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FSV Mainz 05: at least 10Actual: 8
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

FSV Mainz 05: at least 6Actual: 15
VfL Wolfsburg: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.71

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Wolfsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Wolfsburg score1.47

Attack: VfL Wolfsburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.7%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.