Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

Bayern München–FC Augsburg

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 5%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Bayern MünchenH. Ito (assist: M. Olise)
75'FC AugsburgArthur Chaves (assist: M. Kömür)
81'FC AugsburgH. Massengo (assist: D. Giannoulis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		FC Augsburg
15	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
70%	Possession	30%
823	Passes	336
754	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 3.33 · FC Augsburg 0.43. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Bayern München 15 · FC Augsburg 16; on target 6 and 6.
Bayern München kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.5%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.29 for Bayern München, 0.80 for FC Augsburg.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,078 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win85.5%

Draw9.9%

FC Augsburg to win4.6%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bayern München lead at half-time72.7%

Level at half-time24.1%

FC Augsburg lead at half-time3.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Bayern München ahead or level96.8%

12 — not level at half-time75.9%

X2 — level or FC Augsburg ahead27.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1078 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bayern München: at least 9Actual: 10
FC Augsburg: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Bayern München: at least 6Actual: 9
FC Augsburg: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score3.33

Attack: Bayern München score 89% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Augsburg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Augsburg score0.43

Attack: FC Augsburg score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–010.3%2–09.0%3–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.