Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

FC St. Pauli–Hamburger SV

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 January 2026 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC St. Pauli		Hamburger SV
8	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
420	Passes	581
325	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC St. Pauli 1.28 · Hamburger SV 1.33. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC St. Pauli 8 · Hamburger SV 5; on target 3 and 2.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Tobias Welz, Germany→

5.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.7%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “FC St. Pauli to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for FC St. Pauli, 1.09 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,077 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC St. Pauli to win33.9%

Draw31.4%

Hamburger SV to win34.7%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time44.8%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time24.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC St. Pauli ahead or level75.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1077 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC St. Pauli: at least 11Actual: 15
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FC St. Pauli: at least 5Actual: 5
Hamburger SV: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.28

Attack: FC St. Pauli score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.33

Attack: Hamburger SV score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–111.6%1–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.