Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

VfB Stuttgart–Union Berlin

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MHPArena, Stuttgart

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'VfB StuttgartC. Fuhrich (assist: R. Hendriks)
83'Union BerlinJeong Woo-Yeong (assist: S. Nsoki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfB Stuttgart		Union Berlin
13	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	17
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
508	Passes	373
429	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart 1.94 · Union Berlin 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots VfB Stuttgart 13 · Union Berlin 20; on target 4 and 3.
VfB Stuttgart kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Deniz Aytekin, Germany→

5.33

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for VfB Stuttgart, 0.95 for Union Berlin.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,075 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfB Stuttgart to win60.6%

Draw23.0%

Union Berlin to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfB Stuttgart lead at half-time47.5%

Level at half-time36.7%

Union Berlin lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — VfB Stuttgart ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Union Berlin ahead52.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1075 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfB Stuttgart: at least 9Actual: 6
Union Berlin: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

VfB Stuttgart: at least 5Actual: 3
Union Berlin: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfB Stuttgart score1.94

Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Union Berlin's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Union Berlin score1.13

Attack: Union Berlin score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.